This could have just as easily been entitled “Changes in a Trending Environment.” Changes and trends are interwoven, often interrelated and often confused. Webster’s defines a trend as “a statistically detectable change; a tendency.” In other words, a direction, but not an irreversible direction. During multiple discussions in the change class at NRPA’s Supervisors Management School (SMS), I’ve heard “the aging of the population” given as a trend. This is inaccurate. The aging of the population is an irreversible fact, unless somehow 50 million teens from Europe decide to immigrate here in the next few years. The increasing obesity of the American population, especially among youth, is a trend — a negative one that we all need to help reverse, but a trend nevertheless.

As professionals, it is incumbent upon us to stay abreast of not only what is cutting-edge in our profession, but what is cutting-edge, period. What is on the drawing board today will affect all of us tomorrow, and if we are not thinking ahead regarding how technology, efficiencies and management decisions will affect us, then we are already behind the curve. But before looking ahead, it’s instructive to look to the past. We easily forget that 20 years ago in 1993, GPS was almost exclusively used by the military. Cellphones — for those who had them — were the size of bricks, and you paid by the minutes used. The first Internet browser, Netscape, wasn’t released until 1994, and scanning and sending documents via email was unheard of.

Think of the changes in the last 20 years, and try and imagine what is on the horizon for our professional and personal lives in the next decades. Below are a few examples that we explore at SMS. Identifying changes and trends on the horizon, and the second and third generation effects they can impart on our profession, is an important step.

1. Driverless vehicles
If you have the opportunity to visit Google headquarters and meet with CEO Larry Page, you may be picked up at the airport in a driverless SUV with a Google employee in the passenger seat. Based on GPS technology and avoidance cameras, the vehicle will drive itself to the Google campus. “So?” you ask. Ten years ago, we couldn’t imagine a driverless car on the road. Ten years from now, what can we expect regarding hands-free, people-free vehicles and equipment? For example, what kind of mowing equipment will be available? Dana Lonn, PE, The Toro Corporation, states Toro has been exploring GPS-controlled equipment for some time.

“Technology isn’t quite good enough yet to eliminate the human element,” Lonn says. “For example, how do you get it across a road to mow on the other side? However, ballfields are a perfect application for where they could be utilized.” Furthermore, he states the machine must “be easy and robust enough to use with a trained, but not necessarily sophisticated, operator.” The logical follow-up question is: Who will be the operator? A 16-year-old on summer break from school?  How many people will you need on a “mowing crew” if the mowers won’t need operators?

2. Cashless Society
I remember when accepting credit cards was cutting-edge, and even then it took serious consultation with finance personnel to allow it. How many agencies now accept PayPal? How many accept a payment via mobile phone? Could mobile payment technology such as Square or Google Mobile Wallet help an agency? Is it possible to purchase an iPad for a few hundred bucks, invest in a card reader, hook it to your agency’s account and provide POS payments at outlying facilities? Runners, bikers, even walkers may not carry cash or credit cards, but they almost always carry a cellphone. How many years away are we from when a mom registers her daughter for a dance class by waving her smartphone over a QR code next to the program description, and immediately funds are deposited in the department’s account at the same time the instantaneous registration takes place? The point is, how do you make the recreation experience as convenient as possible, and even more to the point, what will be the payment norm in the next decade?

3. Energy
Whether you agree or disagree with fracking, it’s a viable industry that is here to stay.  Historically, natural gas has been 10 times cheaper than crude oil. Currently, it’s 35 times cheaper. The price of a natural gas BTU has dropped 45 percent in the past year. If your agency is looking to build a new facility, natural gas has become the no-brainer decision for inexpensive heat. But what about the department fleet? Are you looking at compressed natural gas (CNG) or other alternate fuels for new vehicles or to retrofit those already in service? Do you think crude oil prices will be higher or lower in 10 years? What kind of fuel do you think that the GPS mowing equipment described above will use? According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average cost of diesel fuel has increased from $2.46 per gallon in 2009 to $3.97 per gallon in 2012. Waste Management says that 80 percent of the trucks it purchases in the next five years will run on natural gas. Richard Branson of Virgin Group predicts that in 50 years, commuter commercial air traffic will use battery-powered planes for short flights. Dana Lonn of Toro states that battery-powered mowers don’t have the run time yet to be practical. However, he says, “no one uses corded power tools anymore; everyone has gone to lithium battery-powered cordless tools.” Improvements in battery technology for power tools eventually will be used in larger applications.

4. Demographics
Both the Census Bureau and the United Nations predict the U.S. population will exceed  400 million by 2050, and 20 percent — approximately 80 million — will be older than age 65, up from only 13 percent now. Already, the Census Bureau estimates that more than half of U.S. children under a year of age belong to a minority group. By 2050, the white non-Hispanic percentage of the population will drop from 64 to 46 percent, while Hispanics will grow from 16 to 30 percent. What will athletic and recreation programming be like when almost one-third of the population will be of Hispanic heritage? Regardless, it’s a fact that our country will be significantly older and less white in 2050 than it is now.

5. Health
We already know that obesity is increasing in this country. According to the CDC, one of every three youths or adolescents is obese. Three of the top ten, and two of the top three, current leading causes of death in the U.S. are related to obesity (heart disease, stroke and diabetes). Now extrapolate that to the year 2050 with an obese population. If we don’t do something, our country will be fatter and more prone to heart-related diseases. What plans are being made by your agency?

The flip-side of the “America is getting fatter” coin is that “America is staying active longer.” At least 80 million Americans will be more than 65 years old (the term “senior” is almost meaningless anymore), but they will be increasingly active. Those 65-year olds will be doing what my father did at 50. The continuous improvement and commonality of replacement of hips, knees and prostheses will allow significant activity well into a person’s 80s. How will that affect the stereotypical “senior center” that uses card games and potluck suppers as the programmatic backbone?

There are no right or wrong answers to these questions. In many cases, there are no answers at all, at least yet. The younger professionals who will be in top leadership positions 20 and 30 years from now will be facing these and many more changes and trends that we can’t even imagine now. One of the great things about parks and recreation is its ability to adapt, adjust and succeed. It will be exciting to see what happens next!


Brad Chambers is founder and principal of The Kelly Group, a consulting organization. He currently serves as Past Chair of the Supervisors Management School, sponsored by North Carolina State University, the Oglebay National Training Center and NRPA, where he instructs “Confronting Change in the 21st Century.”