Leading up to the November elections, the nation and parts of the world will be consumed by the race for President of the United States (POTUS). Park and recreation advocates are naturally also concerned with what the outcome will mean for our priority issues, although ultimately it might not matter. Regardless of who wins the White House, the real battles are likely to continue to be fought on Capitol Hill.

With regard to policies, the President can make recommendations as part of proposed annual budgets and otherwise in position statements, but legislation still must be approved by both the House and Senate and signed by the President to become binding law. As long as the House is striving to please tea party-leaning officials, and the required 60 votes in the Senate is not full proof, anything even remotely controversial is proving difficult to pass. For example, transportation reauthorization bills normally receive bi-partisan support.  Unfortunately, the long-term surface transportation bill currently being debated in Congress has also fallen victim to partisan divides, which include debates over whether to fund programs such as Transportation Enhancements, Recreational Trails Program, and Safe Routes to Schools, or eliminate funding for those programs all together. Overall, however, a primary sticking point on the legislation’s chances for passage is how to pay for it, with little compromise from either party.

We can safely assume the economy is not going to take a dramatic shot upward during the next two years and the deficit is not going to disappear. Therefore, regardless of the outcome for POTUS, the person sitting in the Oval Office will continue to feel the pressure from Republicans in Congress to significantly cut spending and put forth a solid plan for deficit reduction as outlined in the “Cut, Cap and Balance Pledge.” The pledge calls for cuts in spending to reduce the deficit, enforceable spending caps, and congressional passage of a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution–but only if it includes both a spending cap and a requirement that votes to raise taxes pass with a super majority. Conversely, the Democrats will continue to insist that any efforts by the Administration or Congress to balance the budget must include increasing revenue through tax increases. Furthermore, it is Congress that holds responsibility for introducing, debating, and passing annual spending bills known as appropriations.  The Presidential power on annual spending comes primarily in the form of the veto. Thus, fighting for funding of priority programs to support park and recreational efforts will still be mostly on the congressional level and the battles will be more about protecting existing resources rather than expanding them or creating new ones.

Recently two well-known and respected political reports, the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report, forecasted Republicans to retain control of the House and gain a few seats in the Senate, perhaps enough to win the majority. Democrats need 25 seats to win back the majority in the House. Forecasts indicate Republicans could lose as many as 15, but more likely only 10 or fewer, thus leaving them comfortably in the majority. In the Senate, forecasts predict Republicans should be able to add between two and five seats. Senate procedures require a super majority of 60 votes to cut off debate on a bill and move it to a final vote.  So, while a five seat gain would give Republicans a 52-48 majority, that is still significantly short of the 60 votes needed to pass anything controversial. So don’t expect any real change in the make-up of Congress and the current struggles between the two parties. Democrats could retain the White House, but may lose the Senate. Or they could lose the White House, but retain the Senate. Either way there will still be a divided Congress, with Democrats and Republicans controlling one body or the other, or one end of Pennsylvania Avenue or the other, but it is not highly likely that one party takes all. There also will still be divisions within parties, as we have seen between those who have tenure and the more newly elected. One thing is definite, political polarization is rampant and that isn’t going to change any time soon.  

Interestingly, though, pundits say while most Americans have a highly unfavorable opinion of Congress, the highest in decades, they are not ready to give either party an undisputable mandate, or defeat incumbents in large, historical numbers. So far, of the 186 House incumbents who have had primaries, only three have lost. Only one Senator lost a primary. Those who follow congressional politics closely have indicated that even those losses are driven by local issues, not a national wave for or against incumbents or one party more than the other. Beating incumbents can be difficult even in the current negative environment because they enjoy name recognition, the ability to raise money and, uniquely this year, carefully drawn districts that create safe seats.

Although our analysis of what to expect post-November is that things in Washington will be more of the same, it is worth noting that the immediate session following the elections, known as the lame duck, is already packed with many, highly controversial issues. For starters, cans already kicked into the lame duck session include expiring Bush-era tax cuts, the debt ceiling, and plans for automatic across-the-board cuts called sequesters, which will become effective January 1, 2013, unless Congress passes legislation to repeal or postpone them.  Also likely to be taken up in the lame duck session are the FY13 appropriations bills, which means strong advocacy by park and recreation advocates will be needed during that time. 

While the outlook indicates we are in for another two years of partisan politics, park and recreation advocates should remember that we have already weathered this political atmosphere for two years.  While it has not been easy, the advocacy efforts of NRPA members have produced quantifiable results–an achievement that not many interest groups can claim. 

Leslie Mozingo is a partner with The Ferguson Group, a Washington, D.C., lobbying firm which represents NRPA on Capitol Hill.